Tognoli Insights

Pessimism


Get rich slow...perfect!

It’s interesting….as I’m out talking to people, most are happy, positive and upbeat, but they’re worried about the economy and the real estate market. Yet, if you ask why they don’t really know.

Here’s what I think…it’s the the news! I think we’ve all been worried since 08 and 09 and we haven’t been able to shake it. And the NEWS online plays on our emotions because it keeps us on the edge of our seat and coming back for more NEWS and it keeps us online. Get it?

08 and 09 are still fresh in my memory too and I think it’s healthy. It just can’t paralyze us.

So, how’s the NorCal Market?

I spend a lot of time talking with people from Carmel to Tahoe and beyond about the market and what’s happening on the street. I’m talking with Bankers, Realtors , other Developers, Lenders, Investors, pwners of companies...you name it. Most are surprised that people are so jittery because the market’s are solid. No the market’s not crazy hot, but it’s strong and I don’t see that changing other than normal seasonal ups and downs.

This is my general rule of thumb in most NorCal markets(The only markets that might be slightly different are new construction, second home markets and the uber- luxury market. All those markets are a bit of their own beast.):

  • A Seller’s Market is less than a 2 month supply
  • A Neutral Market is a 2 to 4 month supply
  • A Buyer’s Market is 4 months++

So how many months supply are there in most of the core NorCal markets? Less than 2 months.

…and did you know there is more equity in the national housing market today than ever in history?

…and did you know interest rates are at historically low rates?

…and did you know High Tech has claimed an even firmer grip on NorCal with the acquisition of billions of dollars of real estate?

…and did you know the NorCal unemployment rate is at an historic low?

No the market will not go straight up, but it won’t go straight down either. It will go up and down like it always does with a trend UP…that’s my pulse.

Real estate is not a flashy, sexy get rich quick investments strategy. It’s a boring get rich slow strategy. Perfect!

Tom Tognoli NorCal Real Estate Market