Tognoli Insights

Don't Freak: San Francisco Bay Area home prices fall for the first time in 7 years


First don't freak out...it's old news. In Q1 of last year (2018) the Bay Area housing market went a bit crazy. Depending on where you live, it's like the real estate market got a jolt of adrenaline at the end of Q1 last year. Property values literally shot up 10% to 15% in 90 days. It was stupid and unsustainable.

In Q2 of 2018, reality set in and property values gave most of that 90 day gain back in what seemed like a week. It needed to happen. It literally all happened in weeks, not months or years. It happened so quickly most people didn't even notice.

Over the last year, property values have slowly ground their way up. Just not to those stupid prices of Q1 last year...yet. It was unhealthy.

I will warn you now, you may see property values are down year over year again this month and maybe even again next month as well. Next, I predict we will see values flatten out year over year going into the summer. Then, we will see property values climb slowly in the second half of 2019. Again...don't freak...it's all normal. Well...Bay Area normal:)

This is part of the reason I think last year was slower than some had hoped. We needed to get owners/sellers to come back to reality and that does not happen overnight. They held on to what their property was worth for a week or two in Q1 of 2018. That was not reality and if you where lucky enough to sell then, good for you.

On the other hand, if you bought in that week, don't freak out. Real estate is all about the long game, not the short game. You will be fine and happy you purchased and own a home. Just think about that ridiculously low interest rate you got! Better than the 12% I had to pay on my first loan back in '89.

So, now what everyone wants to know...where do we go from here?

I am blessed to be able spend time with some pretty smart and amazing people. I use that opportunity to pick their brains and then mix it with what I know. Most people feel solid about the economy and the prospects for Bay Area real estate. I'm putting my money where my mouth is and have been putting my money to work in real estate with my business partners.

It's hard to wrap your head around, but with all of the IPO's, the tech boom, low interest rates, housing shortage, stock market grinding to new highs, commute traffic and more, I am still a buyer of Bay Area real estate. I don't see any significant changes in our market anytime soon. Ping me if you or anyone you know needs help, I know people :)

And don't freak out!